9/22/2017
TIGHTENING or NORMALIZING?
Sandler O'Neill's Investment Strategy Group released its latest Financial Services Strategy report titled, “TIGHTENING or NORMALIZING?”
5/9/2017
FED, FOREIGN BUYERS RETREAT
Sandler O'Neill's Investment Strategy Group released its latest Financial Services Strategy report titled, “FED, FOREIGN BUYERS RETREAT."
1/31/2017
OPTIMISM vs. DELIVERABILITY
Sandler O'Neill's Investment Strategy Group released its latest Financial Services Strategy report titled, “OPTIMISM vs. DELIVERABILITY.”
9/12/2016
Think Elongated Cycle
Sandler O'Neill's Investment Strategy Group released its latest Financial Services Strategy report titled, “Think Elongated Cycle.”
9/9/2015
Enough on China
By Robert B. Albertson, Principal - The China factor has overwhelmed investor sentiment since its mini-devaluation. Despite market pullbacks, the case for U.S. interest rate normalization has not been fundamentally derailed, in our view, when a wider range of indicators is taken into account.
4/10/2015
Rate Relief Anyway?
By Robert B. Albertson, Principal - Rather than throwing up their hands on bank stocks, investors should closely review and search for banks whose balance sheet profiles promise upside earnings surprise when short rates do advance, even if long rates fail to follow.
12/9/2014
Oil Price Implications
By Robert B. Albertson, Principal - Current energy sector dynamics are increasingly influencing investment strategies, with overly-simplistic local and geographic conclusions that are creating opportunities to buy financials.
9/8/2014
Normal in Slow Motion
By Robert B. Albertson, Principal - While the past cycle may feel anything but similar to the past, if we compress the time scale since 2008, the progression of phases takes on a more familiar, if not comforting pattern.
1/24/2014
Tapering Everywhere
By Robert B. Albertson, Principal - While the supply of new Treasury debt is declining with the deficit, giving the Fed a helpful window to taper QE, foreign demand has already tapered more. The overall slack in demand must be taken up by domestic institutional and retail buying, which would require a sharp change in sentiment.
11/22/2013
Another Housing Bubble
by Robert B. Albertson, Principal - Home prices have once again advanced considerably faster than incomes, and have broken out of their historical band. QE has undeniably kept mortgage rates below where they would normally be. Tapering or withdrawal of QE would almost certainly cause home prices to fall again.
11/22/2013
Another Housing Bubble
by Robert B. Albertson, Principal - Home prices have once again advanced considerably faster than incomes, and have broken out of their historical band. QE has undeniably kept mortgage rates below where they would normally be. Tapering or withdrawal of QE would almost certainly cause home prices to fall again.
6/28/2013
Less is More
by Robert B. Albertson, Principal - A bank contemplating or structuring a sale is making two important decisions at the same time: its most important sell decision and its most important buy decision. A banking consolidation cycle is underway in which powerful earnings accretion can be realized when sellers do not push for the final dollar. Book dilution is still important, but no longer solely defines post-announcement stock price reaction. Earnings impact is gaining recognition and has been an effective counterbalance.
1/15/2013
End of the Consumption Era
by Robert B. Albertson, Principal - We believe financials remain sufficiently disconnected from the economy to be overweighted as the world continues struggling to recover. Signs of life continue to become increasingly evident in business lending. A fiscal crisis has been narrowly avoided without addressing fundamental problems. U.S. consumer spending faltered and remains weak despite short burst of promise.
7/7/2012
Scale Increasingly Matters (Why Consolidation is Destiny)
by Robert B. Albertson, Principal - The negative narrative on banking, that it is doomed to being a moribund utility sector, burdened by regulation and hefty levels of capital, does not fit the data. Rather, recent quarterly data reveals a remarkable recovery in profitability despite record levels of capital.
7/2/2012
The Right Rubicon
by Robert B. Albertson, Principal - the latest Euro resolution plan is much more likely to resolve the short-term uncertainties by making it clear to bank depositors and creditors that the full faith and credit of the European Monetary Union is behind its banking system and greatly limits the call on hard cash support that could mushroom into socializing private debt onto public balance sheets.
3/9/2012
No One Fails (Really)
by Robert B. Albertson, Principal - The Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) is a furthrer vindication of U.S. banking sector balance sheet integrity. It removes a layer of regulatory uncertainty and should enhance sector confidence, valuations and impetus to consolidation.